Counterintuitive Predictions

Counterintuitive Predictions

1. True or False. What occurs in the world is not always reasonable, logical, or right. Even so, it might be true. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are True or False.

2. Reasonable or Unreasonable. People act for reasons other than logic; among them sympathy, loyalty, hope, fear, vested interest, greed, and ineptitude. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are Reasonable or Unreasonable.

3. Right or Wrong. Decisions based on logic or reason can be ethical and moral, unethical or immoral. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are Good or Bad, Ethical or Unethical, Moral or Immoral.

Your Predictions

Before hearing about the Mammogram team at Kaiser Permanente Hospital or reading the associated article, respond in three ways to the Premises below.

First: declare whether the statements made appear to be True or False (you could also answer Likely or Unlikely).

Second: declare whether the statements appear to be Reasonable or Unreasonable (or if you prefer: Batshit Crazy, or Not Insane).

Third: Declare the statements’ moral or ethical position to be Good or Bad. (If the statement doesn’t permit a moral judgment, you could still pronounce it a Good thing, or fundamentally Just Wrong.)

Respond in three ways for each Premise.

1. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
2. False / Reasonable / Good
3. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Wrong
4. True / Not Crazy / Right

Of course, in paradise, the Reasonable would always be True and Good, and the Crazy would always be Untrue, and universally recognized as Bad. But we know better, don’t we? At the end of class, return to your predictions. How many of your expectations were met?

The Article

Mammogram Team Learns from its Errors

The Premises

1. Women who find out how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms stop getting mammograms.
2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, is almost always fired.
4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month are removed from film-reading teams so that they read none at all.
5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an uncertain but significant number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are very similar.
30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year get re-assigned to other work since their sample size is too small to determine their accuracy.
31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
43. Having two doctors instead of one review every film improves accuracy and drives down costs.
44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally has actually reduced accuracy.
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.

The Blind Summary.

When you finish classifying the claims for Truth/Reasonableness/Goodness, in one paragraph, try to summarize the article you have not read. Use the heading “BLIND SUMMARY.”

About davidbdale

Inventor of and sole practitioner of 299-word Very Short Novels. www.davidbdale.wordpress.com
This entry was posted in Counterintuitive Predictions, davidbdale. Bookmark the permalink.

12 Responses to Counterintuitive Predictions

  1. nyaj32 says:

    Women who find out how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms stop getting mammograms.
    True/unreasonable/wrong
    2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
    true/reasonable/ right
    3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, is almost always fired.
    true/reasonable/wrong
    4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month are removed from film-reading teams so that they read none at all.
    false/reasonable/wrong
    5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
    true/reasonable/right
    6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
    true/reasonable/right
    8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
    true/reasonable/right
    9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
    false, reasonable/wrong
    10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
    true/reasonable/right
    11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
    true.reasonable/right
    12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
    true/reasonable/right
    13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
    false/unreasonable/wrong
    15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
    false/unreasonable/wrong
    16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
    true/reasonable/right
    17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
    false/unreasonable/wrong
    18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
    true/reasonable/right
    19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an uncertain but significant number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
    true/unreasonable/right
    21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
    ytue/reasonable/wrong
    22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
    true/reasonable/wrong
    23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
    true/reasonable/right
    25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
    true/reasonable/right
    26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
    true/reasonable/wrong
    27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
    true/reasonable/right
    28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
    true/reasonable wrong
    29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are very similar.
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year get re-assigned to other work since their sample size is too small to determine their accuracy.
    true/unreasonable/right
    31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
    true/reasonable/right
    33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
    false/unreasonable/wrong
    34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
    false/reasonable/wrong
    35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
    false/reasonable/wrong
    36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
    true/reasonable/right
    37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
    false/unreasonable/wrong
    38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
    true/reasonable/right
    39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
    flase/reasonable/wrong
    42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
    true/reasonable/right
    43. Having two doctors instead of one review every film improves accuracy and drives down costs.
    false/unreasonable/right
    44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
    false/unreasonable/wrong
    45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally has actually reduced accuracy.
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
    true/reasonable/wrong
    47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
    true/reasonable/right
    48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
    false/reasonable/right
    49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
    false/unreasonable/wrong
    50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.
    false/reasonable/right

    BlindSummary: The article discusses how what most people would think is a low correct diagnoses rate is actually something that has not been this goo in a long time. The correct diagnoses rate is currently 80 percent. For most doctors, if they are not sure from the mammogram, they will do a biopsy to see for sure what happened. There is no routine followup for women who never tested positive for breast cancer, but that is something that they should definitely change in the future, because it is missed 20 percent of the time that they may have cancer.

  2. doorknob9 says:

    1. True/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    2. False/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    3. True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    4. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    5. True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    6. False/ Reasonable/ Right
    7. True/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    8. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    9. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    10. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    11. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    12. True/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    13. False/ Reasonable/ Right
    14. True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    15. False/ Reasonable/ Right
    16. False/ Unreasonable/ Right
    17. False/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    18. False/ Unreasonable/ Right
    19. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    20. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    21. True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    22. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    23. True/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    24. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    25. False/ Reasonable/ Right
    26. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    27. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    28. False/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    29. True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    30. True/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    31. False/ Unreasonable/ Right
    32. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    33. False/ Reasonable/ Right
    34. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    35. True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    36. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    37. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    38. True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    39. False/ Reasonable/ Right
    40. True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    41. True/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    42. True/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    43. False/ Unreasonable/ Right
    44. True/ Reasonable/ Right
    45. True/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    46. False/ Unreasonable/ Right
    47. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    48. True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    49. False/ Unreasonable/ Wrong
    50. True/ Unreasonable/ Wrong

    • doorknob9 says:

      The article implies that doctors aren’t very reliable with their monograms and people don’t trust them. It seems to be a very reasonable reaction considering these monograms are dealing with life and death situations.

  3. nina525 says:

    1. True/ Reasonable/ Bad
    2. False/Reasonable/ Wrong
    3. Likely/Reasonable/Wrong
    4.True/ Crazy/ Wrong
    5.False/ Reasonable/ Right
    6. True/ Crazy/ Bad
    7. True/ Reasonable/Good
    8. Likely/ Reasonable/Good
    10. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    11.False/Unreasonable/Bad
    12. True/Reasonable/Good
    13. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    14. True/crazy/Bad
    15.False/Unreasonable/ Bad
    16.False/ Reasonable/Right
    17.False/crazy/bad
    18. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    19.Likely/ unreasonable/ good
    20.Likely/

    • nina525 says:

      20.Likely/ Reasonable/Bad
      21.True/Reasonable/Bad
      22.True/Reasonable/Bad
      23.False/Unreasonable/Right
      24.True/Reasonable/Good
      25. True/Reasonable/Good
      26. True/Reasonable/Good
      27.False/Reasonable/Good
      28. False/Reasonable/Bad
      29.True/ Reasonable/Bad
      30. True/unreasonable/bad
      31.Likely/reasonable/bad
      32.True/Reasonable/good
      33.Unlikely/Unreasonable/bad
      34.False/unreasonable/bad
      35. False/unreasonable/bad
      36. Likely/reasonable.good
      37. Likely/unreasonable/bad
      38. True/reasonable/good
      39.True/unreasonable/bad
      40.False/unreasonable/bad
      41.False/unreasonable/good
      42.True/reasonable/bad
      43.Likely/reasonable/good
      44.False/unreasonable/bad
      45.Likely/unreasonable/bad
      46. True/reasonable/bad
      47.Likely/unreasonable/good
      48.True/reasonable/good
      49.Unlikely/unreasonable/bad
      50. Likely/reasonable/good

      Doctors and radiologists are having trouble conducting mammograms on women due to the high numbers of missed tumors. More Women show less interest in taking a mammogram due to the high rates of missed tumors by radiologists. Women also refuse to get a check up, especially when they were told they were cancer free. Radiologists do no take responsibility nor do doctors or radiologists want information of their mistakes being addressed to the public.

  4. nousernamefound1 says:

    Radiologists are having trouble diagnosing women through Mammogram’s. Doctors are being held accountable, which is causing a lot of them to question their skills. The fact that they are trained on discovering breast cancer through X-Rays is the reason why there are held accountable. Its simple that a lot of people picture doctors to be 100% perfect, but its unreasonable. The accuracy is at a rate of 80%, but many women want it at 100%. Its crazy that many will not go get a check up because they fear of the doctor not diagnosing them. Im pretty sure that doctors are following up with patients, it would unreasonable if they didn’t. The hospitals don’t lose faith, its the woman that are miss diagnosed. To solve a lot of these problems, many are given a free Mammogram on Mother’s Day. The doctors want all women to feel like they can be trusted.

  5. chavanillo says:

    1. Truth/ unreasonable / wrong
    2.Not true/ Reasonable/ wrong
    3. Untrue/ unreasonable/ good
    4. Untrue/ reasonable/ wrong
    5. Untrue/ reasonable/ wrong
    6. True/ reasonable/ wrong
    7. Untrue/ reasonable/ right
    8. True/ reasonable/ right
    9. True/ reasonable/ right
    10. True/ reasonable / right
    11. True/ unreasonable/ right
    12. Untrue/ unreasonable / wrong
    13. Untrue/ reasonable/ wrong
    14. Untrue/ reasonable/ wrong
    15. Untrue/ reasonable/ good
    16. Untrue/ reasonable/ good
    17. True/ Unreasonable/ right
    18. True/ reasonable / right
    19. Untrue/ reasonable/ wrong
    20. True/ unreasonable/ right
    21. Untrue/ Unreasonable/ wrong
    22. True/ reasonable/ wrong
    23. Untrue/ reasonable/ right
    24. Untrue/ reasonable/ wrong
    25. Untrue/ reasonable/ right
    26. Untrue/ unreasonable/ wrong
    27.True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    28. True/ reasonable/ right
    29. True/ unreasonable/ right
    30. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    31. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    32. True/ reasonable/ right
    33. Untrue/ reasonable/ wrong
    34. Untrue/ unreasonable/ wrong
    35. True/ reasonable/ right
    36. True/ unreasonable / wrong
    37. Untrue/ reasonable/ wrong
    38. true/ reasonable/ wrong
    39. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    40. Untrue/ reasonable. wrong
    41. Untrue/ Reasonable/ Wrong
    42. Untrue/ reasonable/ wrong
    43. True/ reasonable / right
    44. True/ Unreasonable/ right
    45. Untrue / reasonable/ wrong
    46. Untrue/ Reasonable/ right
    47. True/ unreasonable/ right
    48. True/ reasonable/ wrong
    49. Untrue/ reasonable/ wrong
    50. Untrue/ Unreasonable/ wrong

  6. 1. Likely, Reasonable, Bad
    2. Likely, Reasonable, Good
    3. Likely, Reasonable, Ethical
    4. Likely, Unreasonable, Bad
    5. False, Reasonable, Bad
    6. Likely, Unreasonable, Bad
    7. Likely, Unreasonable, Good
    8. True, Reasonable, Good
    9. True, Reasonable, Bad
    10. True, Reasonable, Good
    11. True, Reasonable, Good
    12. True, Reasonable, Good
    13. True, Reasonable, Good
    14. False, Unreasonable, Bad
    15. Likely, Unreasonable, Bad
    16. False, Reasonable, Good
    17. Likely, Reasonable, Good
    18. Likely, Reasonable, Good
    19. Likely, Reasonable, Bad
    20. True, Reasonable, Bad
    21. True, Reasonable, Bad
    22. True, Reasonable, Bad
    23. False, Unreasonable, Good
    24. True, Reasonable, Good
    25. True, Reasonable, Good
    26. True, Reasonable, Good
    27. False, Reasonable, Good
    28. False, Reasonable, Bad
    29. True, Reasonable, Bad
    30. True, Unreasonable, Bad
    31. Likely, Reasonable, Bad
    32. True, Reasonable, Good
    33. Unlikely, Unreasonable, Bad
    34. False, Unreasonable, Bad
    35. False, Unreasonable, Bad
    36. Likely, Reasonable, Good
    37. Likely, Unreasonable, Bad
    38. True, Reasonable, Good
    39. True, Unreasonable, Bad
    40. False, Unreasonable, Bad
    41. False, Unreasonable, Good
    42. True, Reasonable, Bad
    43. Likely, Reasonable, Good
    44. False, Unreasonable, Bad
    45. Likely, Unreasonable, Bad
    46. True, Reasonable, Bad
    47. Likely, Unreasonable, Good
    48. True, Reasonable, Good
    49. Unlikely, Unreasonable, Bad
    50. Likely, Reasonable, Good

    Blind Summary
    Based on the premises, the article is about the effect of showing the results of mammograms publicly on doctors and patients. The premises also talks about government regulation of the tests and how they affect doctors. Another is whether or not it is right to judge radiologists work if they make little mistakes every now and then.

  7. hazelnutlatte123 says:

    1. Likely/Reasonable/ Bad
    2. Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
    3. Unlikely/Reasonable/ good
    4. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    5. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    6. Likely/Unreasonable/Bad
    7. Likely/Unreasonable/Good
    8. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    9. Likely/Reasonable/Bad
    10. Likely/ Reasonable/Good
    11. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    12. Likely/ Reasonable/Good
    13. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    14. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    15. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    16. Unlikely/ Reasonable/Good
    17. Likely/Reasonable/Good
    18. Likely/Reasonable/ Good
    19. Likely/ Reasonable/Bad
    20. Likely/Reasonable/Bad
    21. Likely/Reasonable/ Bad
    22. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    23. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Good
    24. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    25. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    26. Likely/Reasonable/ Good
    27. Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Good
    28. Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    29. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    30. Likely/Unreasonable/ Bad
    31. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    32. Likely/ reasonable/ Good
    33. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    34. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    35. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    36. Likely/Reasonable/ Good
    37. Likely, Unreasonable/ Bad
    38. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    39. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    40. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    41. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Good
    42. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    43. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    44. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    45. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    46. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    47. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Good
    48. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    49. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    50. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good

    BLIND SUMMARY: Doctors have trouble with coping when they miss diagnoses. This article highlights the statistics of the doctors and radiologists when it comes to diagnosing women during mammograms. The accuracy of the diagnoses are debated to be the reasonable way to discuss a doctor’s competency. Many women decide to no longer get tested when they are told they have a clean bill of health. Follow ups on tests are a reasonable concept when it comes to maintaining the health and safety of the patients.

  8. chavanillo says:

    Blind Summary:
    Radiologist are having problems diagnosing women with mammograms. Because of the results not being the most accurate it makes the doctors think about there own skills. Many women decide to not even take it because at the end is not fully accurate. Even though doctor’s are doubting work ethic, the government wants to sue the doctors for full responsibility. Women are having second thoughts on even trying to do mammograms.

  9. pomegranate4800 says:

    1. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    2. likely/reasonable/right
    3. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    4. unlikely/ unreasonable/ wrong
    5. likely/reasonable/right
    6. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    7. likely/reasonable/right
    8. likely/reasonable/right
    9. likely/reasonable/wrong
    10. likely/reasonable/right
    11. likely/reasonable/right
    12. likely/reasonable/right
    13. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    14. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    15. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    16. likely/reasonable/right
    17. likely/reasonable/right
    18. likely/reasonable/right
    19. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    20. unlikely/reasonable/wrong
    21. likely/reasonable/right
    22. likely/reasonable/right
    23. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    24. likely/reasonable/right
    25. likely/reasonable/right
    26. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    27. likely/reasonable/wrong
    28. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    29. unlikely/reasonable/wrong
    30. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    31. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    32. likely/reasonable/right
    33. likely/reasonable/wrong
    34. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    35. likely/reasonable/right
    36. likely/reasonable/right
    37. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    38. likely/reasonable/wrong
    39. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    40. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    41. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    42. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    43.unlikely/reasonable/right
    44. likely/reasonable/right
    45. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    46. likely/unreasonable/wrong
    47. likely/reasonable/right
    48. likely/reasonable/right
    49. unlikely/unreasonable/wrong
    50. likely/unreasonable/wrong

    Blind Summary:
    Some radiologists have the tendency to miss tumors when examining for breast cancer. After firing many doctors who have missed more than the allowable amount of tumors, the total for misdiagnosis has gone down. Doctors whose failures are made public are scolded and are least likely to have women become their patients after these scandals. Women are now second guessing getting screened.

  10. daphneblake25 says:

    1. Women who find out how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms stop getting mammograms.
    true/reasonable/bad
    2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, is almost always fired.
    true/reasonable/bad
    4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month are removed from film-reading teams so that they read none at all.
    true/unreasonable/good
    5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
    true/reasonable/bad
    6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
    true/unreasonable/bad
    7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
    false/reasonable/good
    8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
    false/reasonable/good
    9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
    false/reasonable/good
    10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
    true/reasonable/good
    11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
    true/reasonable/bad
    13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
    true/reasonable/bad
    14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
    false/unreasonable/bad
    15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
    false/reasonable/good
    16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
    false/reasonable/good
    17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
    true/reasonable/good
    18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
    true/reasonable/good
    19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
    false/reasonable/bad
    20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an uncertain but significant number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
    true/reasonable/bad
    21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
    true/reasonable/bad
    22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
    true/reasonable/good
    23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
    true/reasonable/bad
    24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
    true/reasonable/good
    25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
    false/reasonable/bad
    26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
    true/reasonable/bad
    27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
    false/reasonable/good
    28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
    false/reasonable/bad
    29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are very similar.
    true/unreasonable/bad
    30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year get re-assigned to other work since their sample size is too small to determine their accuracy.

    31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
    true/reasonable/bad
    32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
    true/reasonable/bad
    33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
    true/unreasonable/bad
    34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
    false/reasonable/good
    37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
    true/reasonable/bad
    38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
    true/reasonable/good
    39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
    true/unreasonable/bad
    40. There is no routine follow-up for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
    true/reasonable/bad
    41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
    true/reasonable/good
    42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
    true/reasonable/bad
    43. Having two doctors instead of one review every film improves accuracy and drives down costs.
    false/reasonable/good
    44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
    true/unreasonable/bad
    45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally has actually reduced accuracy.
    true/reasonable/bad
    46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
    true/reasonable/bad
    47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
    true/reasonable/good
    48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
    false/reasonable/good
    49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
    false/unreasonable/bad
    50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.
    false/unreasonable/bad

    Blind Summary: My predictions of the text summary is mostly centered around the unbelievable circumstances that happen within the hospitals with mammogram testing. It seems easy for people to expect how doctors are supposed to always get everything right and not make mistakes, especially regarding the health and well being of women who might have tumors. But the article in my opinion addresses many of the stressful situations that doctors are placed in and how it is sometimes impossible for them to get it right.

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