Counterintuitive Predictions

Counterintuitive Predictions

1. True or False. What occurs in the world is not always reasonable, logical, or right. Even so, it might be true. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are True or False.

2. Reasonable or Unreasonable. People act for reasons other than logic; among them sympathy, loyalty, hope, fear, vested interest, greed, and ineptitude. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are Reasonable or Unreasonable.

3. Right or Wrong. Decisions based on logic or reason can be ethical and moral, unethical or immoral. You’ll decide whether the Premises below are Good or Bad, Ethical or Unethical, Moral or Immoral.

Your Predictions

Before hearing about the Mammogram team at Kaiser Permanente Hospital or reading the associated article, respond in three ways to the Premises below.

First: declare whether the statements made appear to be True or False (you could also answer Likely or Unlikely).

Second: declare whether the statements appear to be Reasonable or Unreasonable (or if you prefer: Batshit Crazy, or Not Insane).

Third: Declare the statements’ moral or ethical position to be Good or Bad. (If the statement doesn’t permit a moral judgment, you could still pronounce it a Good thing, or fundamentally Just Wrong.)

Respond in three ways for each Premise.

1. Likely / Batshit Crazy / Bad
2. False / Reasonable / Good
3. Unlikely / Unreasonable / Wrong
4. True / Not Crazy / Right

Of course, in paradise, the Reasonable would always be True and Good, and the Crazy would always be Untrue, and universally recognized as Bad. But we know better, don’t we? At the end of class, return to your predictions. How many of your expectations were met?

The Article

Mammogram Team Learns from its Errors

The Premises

1. Women who find out how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms stop getting mammograms.
2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, is almost always fired.
4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month are removed from film-reading teams so that they read none at all.
5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an uncertain but significant number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are very similar.
30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year get re-assigned to other work since their sample size is too small to determine their accuracy.
31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
43. Having two doctors instead of one review every film improves accuracy and drives down costs.
44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally has actually reduced accuracy.
46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.

The Blind Summary.

When you finish classifying the claims for Truth/Reasonableness/Goodness, in one paragraph, try to summarize the article you have not read. Use the heading “BLIND SUMMARY.”

About davidbdale

Inventor of and sole practitioner of 299-word Very Short Novels. www.davidbdale.wordpress.com
This entry was posted in Counterintuitive Predictions, davidbdale. Bookmark the permalink.

23 Responses to Counterintuitive Predictions

  1. runnerd4 says:

    this is a test to see if i can edit my replies

    Like

  2. oaktree1234 says:

    1. true, unreasonable, bad
    2. true, reasonable, good
    3. true, unreasonable, bad
    4. false?, unreasonable, bad
    5. false, unreasonable bad
    6. false, unreasonable, bad
    7.true, reasonable, good
    8. true, reasonable, good
    9 false, reasonable, bad
    10. true, reasonable, good
    11. false, reasonable, bad
    12. true, reasonable, good
    13. false, reasonable, bad
    14. true, reasonable, good
    15. false?, reasonable, good
    16. false, unreasonable, bad
    17. true, reasonable, bad,
    18. true reasonable good,
    19. true unreasonable bad
    20. true reasonable good
    21.true reasonable bad
    22.true reasonable bad
    23 true unreasonable bad
    24 true reasonable good
    25 true reasonable good
    26 true reasonable bad
    27 true unreasonable bad
    28 true reasonable good
    29 true reasonable bad
    30 true reasonable good
    31 false reasonable good
    32 true reasonable good
    33 false unreasonable bad
    34 false unreasonable bad
    35 false unreasonable bad
    36 true reasonable good
    37 false unreasonable bad
    38 true reasonable good
    39 true unreasonable bad
    40 true reasonable bad
    41 true reasonable bad
    42 true reasonable bad
    43 false reasonable good
    44 false unreasonable bad
    45 true unreasonable bad
    46 true unreasonable good
    47 true reasonable good
    48 true reasonable bad
    49 false unreasonable bad
    50 false reasonable good

    Like

  3. runnerd4 says:

    1. True/unreasonable/wrong
    2. True/ reasonable/ right
    3. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    4. True/reasonable/right
    5. True/reasonable/right
    6. True/unreasonable/wrong
    7. True/ reasonable/ right
    8. True/ reasonable/ right
    9. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    10. True/ reasonable/ right
    11. False/ reasonable/ right
    12. True/ reasonable/ wrong
    13. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    14. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    15. True/ reasonable/ right
    16. False/ reasonable/ right
    17. True/ reasonable/ right
    18. True/ reasonable/ right
    19. True/ reasonable/ right
    20. True/ reasonable/ right
    21. true/ reasonable/ wrong
    22. true/ reasonable/ right
    23. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    24. True/ reasonable/ mostly right
    25. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    26. true/ reasonable/ right
    27. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    28. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    29. True/ reasonable/ right
    30. True/ reasonable/ right
    31. True/ reasonable/ right
    32. True/ reasonable/ right
    33. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    34. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    35. True/ reasonable/ right
    36. true/ reasonable/ right
    37. True/ crazy/ wrong
    38. True/ reasonable/ right
    39. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    40. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    41. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    42. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    43. True/ reasonable/ right
    44. True/ reasonable/ wrong
    45. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    46. true/ reasonable/ wrong
    47. True/ reasonable/ right
    48. True/ reasonable/ right
    49. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    50. True/ reasonable/ right

    Blind Summary
    From the predictions, I figured that this article is about the importance of success rates of mammogram screening results. Many places have started to put in place certain standards that the radiologists have keep up with the keep their job. There have been newer techniques to determine the success rates of these doctors, which helps to improve the quality of patient care. There have been several legal issues along with the Doctors’ misevaluation of their patients’ results. This has pushed places who do mammograms to adopt new practices to help the doctors to avoid missing tumors.

    Like

  4. gooferious says:

    1. Likely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    2. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    3. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    4. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    5. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    6. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    7. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    8. Reasonable/ Good
    9. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    10. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    11. Likely/ Bad
    12. Reasonable/ Good
    13. Likely/ Somewhat good
    14. Unlikely/ Bad
    15. Likely/ Reasonable
    16. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    17. Likely/ Good
    18. Likely/ Good
    19. Likely/ Good
    20. Likely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    21. Likely/ Bad
    22. Likely/ Bad
    23. Likely/ Bad
    24. Unlikely/ Bad
    25. Likely/ Good
    26. Unlikely/ Bad
    27. Unlikely/ Good
    28. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    29. Likely/ Reasonable
    30. Unlikely/ Good
    31. Unlikely/ Bad
    32. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    33. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    34. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    35. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    36. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    37. Unlikely/ Bad
    38. Unlikely/ Bad
    39. Likely/ Bad
    40. Unlikely/ Bad
    41. Unlikely/ Good
    42. Unlikely/ Bad
    43. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    44. Unlikely/ Reasonable/ Bad
    45. Likely/ Bad
    46. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    47. Unlikely/ Unreasonable/ Bad
    48. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    49. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good
    50. Likely/ Reasonable/ Good

    Like

  5. gooferious says:

    Blind Summary
    I believe this article discusses the facts regarding mammograms that doctors perform on women. It most likely includes examples of not detecting tumors and also maybe examples of statistics regarding the success or failure rate of doctors when it comes to reading mammogram films. Legal issues are probably included and cases against doctors are highly likely. The article most likely also includes quotes from doctors, heads of department, patients and patients who were diagnosed with a false negative or positive.

    Like

  6. pardonmyfrench13 says:

    1. False/unreasonable/bad
    2. True/reasonable/bad
    3. True/unreasonable/bad
    4. False/unreasonable/ bad
    5. True/reasonable/good
    6. False/unreasonable/bad
    7. True/reasonable/good
    8. True/reasonable/good
    9. True/reasonable/bad
    10. True/reasonable/good
    11. True/reasonable/good
    12. True/unreasonable/good
    13. False/unreasonable/bad
    14. False/unreasonable/bad
    15. True/reasonable/good
    16. False/unreasonable/bad
    17. True/reasonable/good
    18. True/unreasonable/good
    19. Ture/unreasonable/ bad
    20. True/ reasonable/ bad
    21. True/reasonable/bad
    22. True/ unreasonable /bad
    23. True/ reasonable/ good
    24. True/ reasonable/ good
    25. True/ reasonable/ bad
    26. True/ unreasonable/bad
    27. True/ reasonable/ good
    28. True/ unreasonable/ bad
    29. True/ reasonable/ good
    30. True/ reasonable/ good
    31. True/ reasonable/ good
    32. True/ reasonable/ good
    33. False/ unreasonable/ bad
    34. False/ unreasonable/ bad
    35. True/ reasonable/ good
    36. true/ reasonable/ good
    37. True/ unreasonable / bad
    38. True/ reasonable/ good
    39. False/ unreasonable/ bad
    40. False/unreasonable/bad
    41. False/unreasonable/bad
    42. False/unreasonable/bad
    43. False/ reasonable/ good
    44. False/ unreasonable/ bad
    45. True/ unreasonable/ bad
    46. True/ unreasonable/ good
    47. True/ reasonable / good
    48. True/ reasonable/ good
    49. False/ unreasonable/ bad
    50. True/ reasonable/ good

    Like

  7. pardonmyfrench13 says:

    Blind Summary:
    To my best guess this article would be all about mammograms’ and the results of how they are preformed. It may include different techniques, statistics and views. There will be new advancements that have been taken place to increase accurate results that may be looked at odd by the doctors and technicians who practice this. The head of the department will weigh in on false results and so will doctors and women in the community. The article will end with what improvements have been made and how women need to be involved and continue to be screened.

    Like

  8. sonnypetro29 says:

    1. True- Unreasonable- bad
    2. True- reasonable- good
    3. True- Unreasonable- bad
    4. False-Unreasonable- bad
    5. False- Unreasonable -bad
    6. False- Unreasonable- bad
    7.True- Reasonable- good
    8. True- Reasonable- good
    9 False- Reasonable- bad
    10. True- Reasonable- good
    11. False- Reasonable- bad
    12. True- Reasonable- good
    13. False- Reasonable- bad
    14. True- Reasonable- good
    15. False- Reasonable- good
    16. False- Unreasonable- bad
    17. True- Reasonable- bad
    18. True- Reasonable- good
    19. True- Unreasonable- bad
    20. True- Reasonable- good
    21.True- Reasonable- bad
    22.True- Reasonable- bad
    23 True- Unreasonable- bad
    24 True- Reasonable- good
    25 True- Reasonable- good
    26 True- Reasonable- bad
    27 True- Unreasonable- bad
    28 True- Reasonable -good
    29 True- Reasonable- bad
    30 True -Reasonable- good
    31 False -Reasonable -good
    32 True -Reasonable good
    33 False- Unreasonable- bad
    34 False- Unreasonable- bad
    35 False- Unreasonable- bad
    36 True- Reasonable- good
    37 False -Unreasonable – bad
    38 True- Reasonable- good
    39 True – Unreasonable- bad
    40 True- Reasonable – bad
    41 True- Reasonable- bad
    42 True- Reasonable- bad
    43 False- Reasonable- good
    44 False- Unreasonable- bad
    45 True- Unreasonable – bad
    46 True- Unreasonable- good
    47 True -Reasonable- good
    48 True- Reasonable- bad
    49 False- Unreasonable -bad
    50 True -Reasonable- good

    Like

  9. comicdub says:

    1 True/Reasonable/Bad
    2 True/Reasonable/Good
    3 False/Unreasonable/Bad
    4 False/Unreasonable/Bad
    5 False/Unreasonable/Bad
    6 False/Reasonable/Bad
    7 True/Reasonable/Good
    8 True/Reasonable/Good
    9 True/Unreasonable/Bad
    10 True/Reasonable/Good
    11 False/Reasonable/Good
    12 False/Reasonable/Good
    13 False/Reasonable/Bad
    14 False/Unreasonable/Bad
    15 False/Reasonable/Bad
    16 False/Reasonable/Good
    17 False/Reasonable/Bad
    18 False/Reasonable/Good
    19 True/Reasonable/Bad
    20 True/Unreasonable/Bad
    21 True/Reasonable/Bad
    22 True/Reasonable/Good
    23 True/Unreasonable/Bad
    24 True/Reasonable/Bad
    25 True/Reasonable/Good
    26 True/Unreasonable/Bad
    27 True/Reasonable/Good
    28 True/Reasonable/Good
    29 True/Reasonable/Bad
    30 True/Unreasonable/Bad
    31 False/Unreasonable/Bad
    32 True/Reasonable/Good
    33 False/Unreasonable/Bad
    34 False/Unreasonable/Good
    35 True/Reasonable/Good
    36 True/Reasonable/Good
    37 True/Unreasonable/Bad
    38 True/Reasonable/Good
    39 False/Unreasonable/Bad
    40 False/Unreasonable/Bad
    41 True/Unreasonable/Bad
    42 True/Unreasonable/Bad
    43 True/Reasonable/Good
    44 True/Reasonable/Bad
    45 True/Unreasonable/Bad
    46 False/Reasonable/Good
    47 True/Reasonable/Good
    48 True/Reasonable/Good
    49 False/Unreasonable/Bad
    50 True/Reasonable/Good

    Blind Summary
    From the 50 premises, I predict that the article is about how currently, nationwide, there is a very low percentage of correct diagnosis of tumors found using mammograms. This has caused many people to sue doctors and hospitals for malpractice. That is why Dr. Adcock took it upon himself to devise a plan to improve the effectiveness of mammogram diagnosis. Adcock’s results then possibly led to discussions of adopting better practices in order to increase the percentage of correct diagnoses, nationwide.

    Like

  10. aquarela says:

    The Premises
    1. True/reasonable/wrong
    2. True/reasonable/right
    3. Likely/not crazy/bad
    4. Unlikely/batshit crazy/wrong
    5. True/reasonable/good
    6. False/unreasonable/wrong
    7. True/reasonable/good
    8. True/reasonable/right
    9. False/unreasonable/bad
    10. True/reasonable/good
    11. False/reasonable/good
    12. True/reasonable/good
    13. False/not crazy/bad
    14. True/reasonable/right
    15. True/reasonable/good
    16. False/unreasonable/wrong
    17. True/reasonable/good
    18. True/reasonable/right
    19. True/ reasonable/ right
    20. True/ reasonable/ right
    21. true/ reasonable/ wrong
    22. true/ reasonable/ right
    23. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    24. True/ reasonable/ mostly right
    25. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    26. true/ reasonable/ right
    27. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    28. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    29. True/ reasonable/ right
    30. True/ reasonable/ right
    31. True/ reasonable/ right
    32. True/ reasonable/ right
    33. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    34. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    35. True/ reasonable/ right
    36. true/ reasonable/ right
    37. True/ crazy/ wrong
    38. True/ reasonable/ right
    39. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    40. True/ unreasonable/ wrong
    41. False/ unreasonable/ bad
    42. False/ unreasonable/ bad
    43. True/ reasonable/ right
    44. True/ reasonable/ wrong
    45. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    46. true/ reasonable/ wrong
    47. True/ reasonable/ right
    48. True/ reasonable/ right
    49. False/ unreasonable/ wrong
    50. True/ reasonable/ right

    Like

  11. BabyGoat says:

    1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Reasonable/Good
    3. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    4. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    5. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    6. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    7.True/Reasonable/Good
    8. True/Reasonable/Good
    9 False/Reasonable/Bad
    10. True/Reasonable/Good
    11. False/Reasonable/Bad
    12. True/Reasonable/Good
    13. False/Reasonable/Bad
    14. True/Reasonable/Good
    15. False/Reasonable/Good
    16. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    17. True/Reasonable/Bad
    18. True/Reasonable/Good
    19. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    20. True/Reasonable/Good
    21.True/Reasonable/Bad
    22.True/Reasonable/Bad
    23. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    24 .True/Reasonable/Good
    25 .True/Reasonable/Good
    26.True/Reasonable/Bad
    27. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    28. True/Reasonable/Good
    29. True/Reasonable/Bad
    30. True/Reasonable/Good
    31. False/Reasonable/Good
    32. True/Reasonable/Good
    33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    35. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    36. True/Reasonable/Good
    37. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    38. True/Reasonable/Good
    39. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    40. True/Reasonable/Bad
    41. True/Reasonable/Bad
    42. True/Reasonable/Bad
    43. False/Reasonable/Good
    44. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    45. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    46. True/Unreasonable/Good
    47. True/Reasonable/Good
    48. True/Reasonable/Bad
    49. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    50. True/Reasonable/Good

    Like

  12. SmilingDogTheProfWants says:

    truth/reasonable/goodness
    likely/unreasonable/bad
    true/unreasonable/really bad but also not
    true/unreasonable/wrong
    false/unreasonable/bad
    false/unreasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/good
    true/reasonable/good
    false/reasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/good
    false/reasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/good
    true/reasonable/good
    false/unreasonable/bad
    false/unreasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/good
    false/unreasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/good
    true/unreasonable/good
    ture/unreasonable/bad
    true/ reasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/bad
    true/unreasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/good
    true/reasonable/good
    true/reasonable/bad
    true/unreasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/good
    true/unreasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/good
    true/reasonable/good
    true/reasonable/good
    false/unreasonable/bad
    false/unreasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/good
    true/reasonable/good
    true/unreasonable/bad
    true/reasonable/good
    false/unreasonable/ bad
    false/unreasonable/bad
    false/unreasonable/bad
    false/unreasonable/bad
    likely/reasonable/good
    unlikely/ reasonable/bad
    likely/reasonable/bad
    likely/reasonable/good
    unlikely/unreasonable/bad
    likely/reasonable/good
    likely/reasonable/good
    likely/reasonable/good

    Like

  13. SmilingDogTheProfWants says:

    Blind Summary:

    This article most likely covers the importance of maintaining a functional staff to best test women for breast cancer through the use of a mammogram test. One of the large issues presented is the disregarding of staff when a relatively low number of unnoticed tumors are reported from a person previously tested. This article most likely aims to keep doctors with the most experience doing their job and working to make it better rather than the hospital (or whatever point of operation) get rid of doctors with a below perfect find rate to ensure the hospital looks good on paper rather than by results.

    Like

  14. cardinal7218 says:

    1. Women who find out how many cancers their doctors miss in routine mammograms stop getting mammograms.
    True/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. Radiologists who perform mammograms are held accountable for the accuracy of their readings.
    True/Unreasonable/Right
    3. A doctor who finds hundreds of tumors in a year and a half, but who misses 10, is almost always fired.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    4. Doctors who read only a few mammograms a month are removed from film-reading teams so that they read none at all.
    True/Unreasonable/Right
    5. Publishing the failure rates of radiologists improves their accuracy to the best the discipline can achieve.
    False/Reasonable/Good
    6. The best technique for improving diagnosis accuracy has been adopted by almost no radiology departments.
    True/Crazy/Wrong
    7. Congress demands that radiologists be held accountable for their accuracy at detecting tumors in mammogram films.
    False/Crazy/Wrong
    8. The 20,000 US doctors who read breast X-rays are trained to do so; their accuracy is known and tested.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    9. The medical profession accepts that, to varying degrees, all doctors make the same mistakes.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    10. Doctors who do mammographies follow up with those patients to discover whether their diagnoses were correct.
    False/Reasonable/Right
    11. Doctors appreciate knowing whether they missed actual tumors or misread the “shadows and swirls” of a mammogram as a tumor.
    False/Not Insane/Good
    12. The “shame” of confronting an incorrect diagnosis is a valuable teaching tool for doctors who diagnose cancers from mammograms.
    False/Reasonable/Wrong
    13. An accuracy rate of 80% in detecting cancers from mammograms is something to brag about.
    True/Crazy/Wrong
    14. The best doctor to head a radiology department is a squeamish physician who trained as a lawyer and prefers not to deal with patients “and their blood.”
    True/Crazy/Bad
    15. Radiology can be tracked well statistically because patients either have tumors or they don’t.
    False/Reasonable/Good
    16. When the director of the radiology department discovers a way to improve the accuracy of cancer diagnoses, his method is immediately embraced by hospital administrators.
    False/Reasonable/Good
    17. When New York hospitals began to publish their surgeons’ heart surgery successes and failures, the death rate fell by 40%.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    18. The falling death rate meant that heart surgeons were doing more careful work.
    False/Reasonable/Good
    19. Hospitals that reduce their false diagnoses proudly advertise that they “make 20% fewer errors” than their competitors.
    True/Not Insane/Good
    20. Publishing the error rates of mammography radiologists results in an uncertain but significant number of cancer deaths in women who avoid testing.
    True/Unreasonable/Bad
    21. A radiologist who is known to have missed a tumor is likely to have missed a dozen out of 3000 he declared to be tumor-free.
    True/Reasonable/Bad
    22. Out of those 3000, when 250 were scanned again, and 30 were biopsied, 10 were found to have cancers he had missed.
    True/Reasonable/Bad
    23. Finding those 10 cancers was reported as a front-page medical scandal instead of a triumph of an enlightened new technique for avoiding missed diagnoses.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    24. Many of the 250 women who were told they needed followup were angry.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    25. Of the ten whose cancers were missed by the first doctor but discovered in followup screenings, most sued the hospital for malpractice.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    26. The doctor who missed the 10 tumors felt he had been treated unfairly, that only 3 of the cancers could be blamed on him, and that his error rate was acceptable.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    27. After being fired, he was hired as a fill-in radiologist in five states bordering North Carolina.
    True/Reasonable/Good
    28. The radiologists on the terminated doctor’s team supported him, not the hospital, and resent having their work scrutinized and their failure rates published.
    True/Reasonable/Bad
    29. While some doctors read 14,000 films a year, and others fewer than 500, failure rates are very similar.
    True/Crazy/Wrong
    30. Doctors who read just 500 films a year get re-assigned to other work since their sample size is too small to determine their accuracy.
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    31. Doctors who are “fired” from film reading based on low volume are relieved to have the diagnostic responsibility taken from them.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    32. Doctors would rather bring a patient back for a second look or a biopsy than miss a tumor.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    33. Doctors are much happier to find evidence on the film of a cancer that has “been around for awhile.”
    True/Reasonable/Bad
    34. Routinely experiencing the shame of missed diagnoses in tests every four months builds confidence in radiologists.
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    35. Most hospitals send out lists of actual missed tumors or “false negatives” to their radiologists every year so they can study the films they misinterpreted.
    True/Reasonable/Good
    36. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to detect various “presentations” of tumors on film by studying films of actual missed tumors after the fact.
    True/Reasonable/Good
    37. In North Carolina, for every two cancers radiologists find, they miss one.
    True/Crazy/Bad
    38. If the results at Kaiser Permanente were replicated nationwide, better than 80% of cancers would be found and 10,000 more cancers would be correctly detected each year.
    True/Crazy/Good
    39. False positives are easy to track, but almost nobody tracks false negatives (missed tumors that show up in later mammograms).
    True/Crazy/Bad
    40. There is no routine followup for women who, on the basis of their mammograms, are determined to be tumor free.
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    41. Holding radiologists to a higher standard of competency results in reduced access to quality care.
    True/Not insane/Bad
    42. Making failure rates public increases the likelihood of malpractice claims, which in turn drives up insurance rates, which in turn drives good doctors from the field.
    True/Not insane/Bad
    43. Having two doctors instead of one review every film improves accuracy and drives down costs.
    False/Reasonable/Good
    44. A nationwide 70% effectiveness rate is considered the best that can be achieved practically and politically.
    True/Reasonable/Good
    45. Government oversight of physician performance to standardize techniques nationally has actually reduced accuracy.
    True/Crazy/Bad
    46. Dr. Adcock, who improved effectiveness in his radiology department by 25%, took himself off the team when his volume dropped.
    True/Reasonable/Right
    47. The most conscientious doctors, who agonize over the presence or absence of tumors on every film, are by far the most effective.
    False/Reasonable/Right
    48. When they have a choice, women are best served by the doctors who send the largest percentage of women for biopsies because they miss the fewest cancers.
    True/Reasonable/Good
    49. The best indicator of whether a doctor is competent to read mammograms is the number of times she’s been sued.
    False/Reasonable/Wrong
    50. A good day for mammograms is Mother’s Day, when many clinics offer free or discounted exams.
    False/Reasonable/Good

    Like

  15. cardinal7218 says:

    Blind Summary

    This article is about the accuracy of mammograms. It seems that there was a major problem of inaccurate positives and negatives in breast cancer screenings. One clinic tried to change that by holding their physicians accountable for their mistakes and posting the missed tumors for other Doctors to see to do so. It also seems that they fired physicians who missed a certain number of tumors and held their doctors to a very high standard. That clinic has a high rate of correct mammograms, but their physicians are being treated unfairly due to the high standards they are held to. In trying to help physicians learn from their mistakes, they are routinely shamed for their mistakes. Also, good physicians who get hundreds of screenings right can get fired for getting only a few wrong.

    Like

  16. dayzur says:

    1. true / unreasonable / bad
    2. true / reasonable / right
    3. false / unreasonable / bad
    4. false / unreasonable / bad
    5. false / unreasonable / bad
    6. true / unreasonable / wrong
    7. true / reasonable / right
    8. true / reasonable / right
    9. true / unreasonable / wrong
    10. likely / reasonable / good
    11. true / unreasonable / bad
    12. true / reasonable / good
    13. false / unreasonable / wrong
    14. false / unreasonable / wrong
    15. true / reasonable / right
    16. false / reasonable / right
    17. true / unreasonable / wrong
    18. true / reasonable / right
    19. true / unreasonable / wrong
    20. true / unreasonable / wrong
    21. true / unreasonable / bad
    22. true / unreasonable / bad
    23. true / reasonable / bad
    24. true / reasonable / right
    25. true / reasonable / right
    26. false / unreasonable / wrong
    27. true / unreasonable / bad
    28. true / unreasonable / wrong
    29. true / unreasonable / wrong
    30. true / reasonable / right
    31. true / reasonable / right
    32. true / reasonable / right
    33. false / reasonable / right
    34. false / unreasonable / wrong
    35. true / reasonable / right
    36. true / reasonable / right
    37. true / unreasonable / wrong
    38. true / reasonable / right
    39. false / unreasonable / wrong
    40. true / unreasonable / wrong
    41. false / unreasonable / wrong
    42. true / reasonable / right
    43. true / reasonable / right
    44. false / unreasonable / wrong
    45. true / unreasonable / wrong
    46. true / reasonable / right
    47. true / reasonable / right
    48. false / unreasonable / wrong
    49. false / unreasonable / wrong
    50. true / reasonable / good

    I believe the article talks about the results in mammograms mainly performed on women by doctors. It seems there is a slightly lower average success rate on spotting cancer in women and these doctors seem to think that even though they do not catch every single tumor, they believe their success rate to be good enough. Now, the doctors are being charged and actions are being taken against them because of their poor results. Doctors without adequate results are being taken out of their positions and being replaced. Dr. Adcock created a plan to help with this and to keep the more experienced doctors in their jobs and remove the less experienced from the scene.

    Like

  17. l8tersk8ter says:

    1. False, unreasonable, bad
    2. False, reasonable, bad
    3. False, unreasonable, bad
    4. False, unreasonable, bad
    5. False, unreasonable, bad
    6. False, unreasonable, bad
    7. True, reasonable, good
    8. True, reasonable, good
    9. True, unreasonable, bad
    10. False, reasonable, good
    11. True, reasonable, good
    12. True, reasonable, good
    13. True, reasonable, bad
    14. True, unreasonable, bad
    15. False, reasonable, good
    16. False, reasonable, good
    17. False, reasonable, good
    18. False, reasonable, good
    19. True, unreasonable, good
    20. True, reasonable, bad
    21. True, reasonable, bad
    22. True, reasonable, bad
    23. True, unreasonable, bad
    24. False, reasonable, bad
    25. False, unreasonable, bad
    26. True, reasonable, bad
    27. False, reasonable, good
    28. True, reasonable, bad
    29. False, unreasonable, bad
    30. True, unreasonable, bad
    31. False, unreasonable, good
    32. True, reasonable, good
    33. False, unreasonable, bad
    34. False, unreasonable, bad
    35. False, reasonable, good
    36. True, reasonable, good
    37. False, unreasonable, bad
    38. True, reasonable, good
    39. True, reasonable, bad
    40. True, reasonable, bad
    41. True, reasonable, bad
    42. True, unreasonable, bad
    43. False, unreasonable, good
    44. True, unreasonable, bad
    45. True, unreasonable, bad
    46. False, unreasonable, bad
    47. True, reasonable, good
    48. False, reasonable, good
    49. False, reasonable, good
    50. False, unreasonable, good

    Blind Summary
    Doctors that read a low number of mammography scans are moved out of that role. Only doctors that read a large number of scans have the knowledge and skill to do so accurately. When the statistics for a doctors success rates in properly reading the scans are published a lot of lawsuits of malpractice follow and the doctors lose their jobs. People will stop getting scans if they find out their doctor isn’t producing accurate results. Doctors should have no room for error and incorrect readings means they are not a good doctor. The Kaiser Permanente department has learned to produce better results which should be replicated by all practices.

    Like

  18. 612119d says:

    1. true, unreasonable, bad
    2. true, reasonable, good
    3. true, unreasonable, bad
    4. true, unreasonable, bad
    5. false, unreasonable bad
    6. false, unreasonable, bad
    7.true, reasonable, good
    8. true, reasonable, bad
    9 false, reasonable, bad
    10. true, reasonable, good
    11. true , reasonable, bad
    12. true, reasonable, bad
    13. false, reasonable, bad
    14. true, reasonable, good
    15. true, reasonable, good
    16. false, unreasonable, good
    17. true, reasonable, bad,
    18. true reasonable good,
    19. true unreasonable bad
    20. true reasonable good
    21.true reasonable bad
    22.true reasonable bad
    23 true unreasonable bad
    24 true reasonable good
    25 true reasonable good
    26 true reasonable bad
    27 true unreasonable good
    28 true reasonable good
    29 true reasonable bad
    30 true reasonable good
    31 false reasonable good
    32 true reasonable good
    33 false unreasonable bad
    34 false unreasonable bad
    35 false unreasonable good
    36 true reasonable good
    37 false unreasonable bad
    38 true reasonable good
    39 true unreasonable bad
    40 true reasonable bad
    41 true reasonable bad
    42 true reasonable bad
    43 true reasonable good
    44 false unreasonable good
    45 true unreasonable bad
    46 false unreasonable good
    47 false reasonable good
    48 true reasonable bad
    49 false unreasonable bad
    50 true reasonable good

    Like

  19. 612119d says:

    Blind Summary
    Only doctors who read a large amount of mammograms are kept in that role, since they are the ones with the knowledge and skill to do it accurately.Some doctors will face lawsuits if the fail to read a mammogram correct and could lose there job. People wont get the scans if they feel the results are not accurate. Doctors have no room for error since its a matter of life or death.
    The Kaiser Permanente program has lead to better results.

    Like

  20. clementine102 says:

    1.) Likely / Unreasonable / Good
    2.) False / Unreasonable / Wrong
    3.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Wrong
    4.) Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    5.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    6.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    7.) Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    8.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    9.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    10.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    11.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    12.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    13.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    14.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    15.) Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    16.) Unlikely / Reasonable / Good
    17.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Good
    18.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    19.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    20.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    21.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    22.) Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    23.) Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    24.) Likely / Unreasonable / Good
    25.) Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    26.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    27.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    28.) Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    29.) Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    30.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    31.) Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    32.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    33.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    34.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    35.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    36.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    37.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    38.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    39.) Unlikely / Reasonable / Bad
    40.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    41.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    42.) Likely / Reasonable / Bad
    43.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    44.) Likely / Unreasonable / Bad
    45.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    46.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    47.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    48.) Likely / Reasonable / Good
    49.) Unlikely / Unreasonable / Bad
    50.) Unlikely / Reasonable / Good

    Like

  21. gabythefujoshi18 says:

    The Premises:
    Likely/Reasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Right
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Right
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Unreasonale/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Right
    True/Reasonable/Right
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Reasonable/Wrong
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    False/Reasonable/Right
    False/Reasonable/Right
    False/Reasonable/Right
    True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Wrong
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    False/Reasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Right
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Right
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    False/Reasonable/Wrong
    False/Reasonable/Right
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Reasonable/Wrong
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Reasonable/Wrong
    True/Reasonable/Right
    False/Unreasonable/Wrong
    True/Unreasonable/Right

    Like

  22. gabythefujoshi18 says:

    The Blind Summary:
    The article discusses the effects inaccurate mammogram readings from doctors. Radiologists are beginning to be penalized greatly for inaccurate readings because there is greater risk in false negatives. There has been improvements in getting more accurate readings.

    Like

  23. shadowswife says:

    1. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    2. True/Reasonable/Good
    3. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    4. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    5. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    6. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    7. True/Reasonable/Good
    8. True/Reasonable/Good
    9. True/Reasonable/Good
    10. True/Reasonable/Good
    11. False/Reasonable/Good
    12. True/Reasonable/Wrong
    13. False/Reasonable/Wrong
    14. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    15. False/Reasonable/Good
    16. False/Reasonable/Good
    17. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    18. True/Unreasonable/Good
    19. True/Reasonable/Right
    20. True/Reasonable/Right
    21. True/Reasonable/Right
    22. True/Reasonable/Good
    23. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    24. True/Reasonable/Right
    25. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    26. True/Reasonable/Good
    27. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    28. True/Reasonable/Right
    29. True/Reasonable/Good
    30. True/Reasonable/Good
    31. True/Reasonable/Right
    32. True/Reasonable/Right
    33. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    34. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    35. True/Reasonable/Good
    36. True/Reasonable/Good
    37. True/Unreasonable/Bad
    38. True/Reasonable/Good
    39. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    40. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    41. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    42. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    43. True/Reasonable/Good
    44. True/Reasonable/Bad
    45. False/Unreasonable/Bad
    46. True/Unreasonable/Wrong
    47. True/Reasonable/Good
    48. True/Reasonable/Good
    49. False/Reasonable/Wrong
    50. True/Reasonable/Wrong

    Blind Summary:
    The article is probably about the effectiveness of mammograms. There have been some ongoing issues with accidentally missing some evidence of cancer developing in a woman’s body. There is a debate about what can be done to increase the effectiveness of these mammograms. Some suggestions point to doctors feeling pressured to do better and radiologists taking full responsibility for the mammograms. However, even if mammograms’ effectiveness rate increased, there is still much evidence that shows the defects a mammogram possesses.

    Like

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